WebOct 20, 2024 · Drewry’s base case for 2024 is that the ocean carrier sector will post earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of $100 billion. That’s down 64% from a projected 2024 EBIT of $275 billion but still well above pre-pandemic earnings. It’s definitely not a “hard landing.”. “The current state of the market is undeniable. Carriers have multiple ways to manage capacity and avert a crash in 2024. One is to sell older ships for demolition. “After years of almost zero demolitions, we believe it is going to come back with quite a bang,” said Heaney. Drewry’s base case calls for scrapping of 600,000 twenty-foot equivalent units next year, or … See more Drewry’s base case for 2024 calls for demand growth of 1.9%. On the supply side, if all new ships were theoretically delivered on time and … See more Another way shipping lines can manage capacity is to idle vessels. “Idling was one of the primary tools used back in 2009 to combat the financial-crash-induced demand slump,” he … See more One of the most frequently cited supply levers is slow steaming: removing capacity by sailing slower, whether as a rate-supporting strategy or to comply with environmental regulations. Unlike many other analysts, Drewry … See more Port congestion is a side effect of supply chain issues, not a lever carriers proactively pull, but it has a major effect on vessel supply. … See more
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